I'm an independent researcher, hobbyist forecaster, programmer, and aspiring effective altruist.
Glibly, my interest include maths, philosophy, developmental economics, probability theory, forecasting, juggling, aikido, programming, Spanish poetry, applying mathematical formalisms to undermathematized problems, mental health, and world-optimization.
In the past, I've studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exhasperation at the inefficiency; picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 and 2019, and SPARC during 2020; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.
My main goals are to become stronger, to optimize the world, and to acquire better models thereof. I like to spend my time improving said models, and programming; a good fraction of my research is available on nunosempere.github.io.
With regards to forecasting, I am LokiOdinevich on GoodJudgementOpen, and Loki on CSET-Foretell. I have been running a Forecasting Newsletter since April 2020. I also enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs.
I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and I'm working on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term." You can share feedback anonymously with me here.