Good Judgement Open

CSET; I was interviewed about my experience there in The Making of a Top Forecaster


Metaforecast: A search engine for probabilities

Forecasting Newsletter

A prior for technological discontinuities

Predicting the value of small altruistic projects

Amplifying generalist research via forecasting

Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize

Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions

Past Pandemics Prior

Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration

Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle